Your energy bills dropped a little in April. It felt like a relief after a rough winter. But that relief has an expiry date: 1st July 2026.

That’s when Ofgem’s next price cap kicks in, and every major energy forecaster is pointing the same direction. Bills are heading back up, and by a meaningful amount.

The headline number: the July cap is predicted to rise by around 12.9%, pushing the average annual bill from £1,641 to approximately £1,853. That’s an extra £212 a year landing on households that were already stretched.

The official announcement is due by 27th May. But the writing is already on the wall, and waiting to see what number Ofgem confirms isn’t a strategy.

What Is the Energy Price Cap, and Why Does It Keep Moving?

The energy price cap is set by Ofgem and limits the maximum rate energy suppliers can charge per unit of gas and electricity. It’s reviewed every three months, in January, April, July, and October.

Here’s the important thing most people misunderstand: the cap is not a cap on your total bill. It’s a cap on the unit rate. Use more energy, pay more. The £1,853 figure assumes average household consumption, and plenty of families with older homes, electric heating, or young children will be paying significantly above that.

Why is it going up again?

The April drop was largely driven by a government decision to remove £150 in policy costs from bills. That was a one-off intervention, not a structural fix. The July rise is being driven by wholesale energy prices, which have been pushed upwards by ongoing instability in global energy markets, including tensions in the Middle East affecting gas supply chains.

The short version: the government gave you £150 back in spring, and the market is taking roughly £212 of it away again in summer.

Where the Cap Is Heading: The Forecast Beyond July

The July rise isn’t a blip. Looking at current forecasts, the trajectory for the rest of 2026 and into 2027 is firmly upward.

Figures based on forecasts from major energy suppliers. The July figure will be confirmed by Ofgem on 27th May 2026.

What this table shows is that the April dip was the exception, not the new normal. We’re looking at bills staying elevated well into 2027, with no clear downward pressure on the horizon.

The real cost of doing nothing: a household paying the average bill today will spend roughly £3,700 more on energy over the next two years compared to 2021 pre-crisis levels, even accounting for the April reduction.

What You Can Actually Do About It

Here’s where most energy articles leave you with a list of tips like “turn your thermostat down” and “switch to LED bulbs.” Those things are fine, but they’re not going to offset a £212 annual rise.

There are really two categories of response: short-term mitigation and long-term insulation from the cap entirely.

Short-term: reduce how much you buy from the grid

• Fix your tariff now if you can find a deal below the predicted July cap. Fixed tariffs have become more competitive as suppliers anticipate the rise.
• Shift energy use to off-peak hours if you’re on a time-of-use tariff. Running dishwashers and washing machines overnight can meaningfully reduce your bill.
• Check your direct debit is accurate. Many suppliers over-collect in summer and sit on your credit. You’re entitled to request a refund.

These steps can take the edge off, but they don’t change the fundamental problem: you’re still completely exposed to wherever Ofgem sets the cap next quarter.

Long-term: generate your own electricity

The only way to genuinely insulate yourself from the price cap is to reduce how much energy you buy from the grid in the first place.

A typical solar panel system installed on a UK home generates enough electricity to cover 50-70% of a household’s annual consumption. That’s 50-70% of your electricity bill that the price cap simply cannot touch.

Add a battery storage system, and you can capture surplus energy generated during the day and use it in the evening, pushing self-sufficiency even higher. Many of our customers see their grid electricity costs cut by over £1,000 a year once their system is fully optimised.

The maths are straightforward: if your electricity bill is £1,200 a year and solar covers 60% of that, you’ve saved £720 annually. Over a 25-year panel lifespan, that’s £18,000 in savings, not accounting for future price rises making the return even stronger.

You can read more about whether solar panels are worth it in the UK on our blog, or explore how much energy solar panels generate each day to understand what a system would realistically produce at your property.

Why Now Is Actually a Good Time to Act

There’s a temptation to wait for more certainty before making a decision like this. But consider the timing:

• Installation lead times are real. A solar installation typically takes 4-8 weeks from enquiry to completion. If you start the process now, you could have panels generating electricity before the July cap hits.
• Solar panel costs are near historic lows. Panel manufacturing costs have dropped dramatically over the past decade. The cost of waiting is measured in the bills you pay while you delay.
• The Smart Export Guarantee means you get paid for surplus energy you export back to the grid. That’s an additional income stream on top of the savings.

We’ve written about the benefits of solar panels for your home in more detail, including how the numbers stack up for different property types across the UK.

The price cap will keep moving. It always has. The only question is whether you want to keep absorbing those movements, or start generating your own answer to them.

Get a free, no-obligation quote from Project Solar and find out exactly what a system would save you. We’re the UK’s largest dedicated solar installation company, and we install nationwide.

Written By Kitty Dawbarn