What Impact Will Global Warming Have on the Planet by 2050?
As the world grapples with the realities of climate change, the United Kingdom stands at a crossroads. The year 2050 is a critical milestone in the fight against global warming, and the government is currently running behind targeted projections.
As recently as September 2023, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stated that we won’t reach our Net Zero 2050 goals unless we take a more ‘pragmatic, proportionate, and realistic approach’ to reducing emissions.
So, what does this mean? If the UK and the rest of the world continue down this path of fossil fuel reliance, how will our environment change?
What are climate models, and how do they work?
Climate models are tools for understanding and predicting the future of our planet’s climate. In the UK, strides have been made to refine these models, meaning we now have a deeper understanding of regional and global climatic changes.
At their core, climate models are sophisticated computer simulations of the Earth’s climate system, encompassing the atmosphere, ice, ocean and land. They work by calculating various climatic properties (e.g. humidity, pressure, wind) across points on a 3D grid.
The process involves using mathematical calculations to predict possible changes in our global environment, and the Met Office plays a particularly vital role in UK climate modelling.
How will global temperatures change by 2050?
The Met Office’s UK Climate Projections indicate that even with rapid global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the UK is still likely to experience at least an additional warming of around 0.6°C by 2050.
If we fail to reach our Net Zero 2050 targets, the country will likely experience temperature increases of a further 2 to 3°C (from today’s levels under current global emissions trajectories).
What changes will occur in weather patterns and precipitation?
The Met Office provides further details on weather pattern predictions, many of which paint a concerning picture for future generations.
By 2070, under a high emissions scenario, the UK is expected to experience winters 1 to 4.5°C warmer and up to 30% wetter. Summers are projected to be 1 to 6°C warmer and up to 60% drier, depending on the region.
Notably, hot summer days could become 4 to 7°C warmer. These changes pose substantial risks to public health, as evidenced by past heat waves resulting in significant excess deaths.
By 2070, the likelihood of temperatures exceeding 30°C for two days or more is projected to be sixteen times more frequent in the southern UK than today. The chances of exceeding 40°C could become similar to the chances of exceeding 32°C thirty years ago.
How will melting ice and rising sea levels affect the planet?
As the planet gradually heats up, ice and sea levels will rise. A serious consequence of global warming is the widespread loss of glaciers and sea ice at unprecedented rates.
The Arctic may be a long way away from places like the US, UK and Europe, but its melting ice caps will have a global impact. The University of Edinburgh’s School of Geosciences predicts that, by 2050, the Arctic is predicted to be ‘sea-ice free’ and with this, sea levels will continue to accelerate.
Recent measurements from 2021 show a rise of 3.7mm per year during 2006-2018, compared to 1.3mm per year during 1901-1971. Even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, long-term impacts, such as sea level rises, melting of Arctic ice, ocean warming and acidification, may already be inevitable.
How will global warming impact marine and terrestrial ecosystems?
Humans won’t be the only living creatures to suffer the consequences of climate change: Trends in Ecology and Evolution have identified a concerning phenomenon called ‘tropicalisation’.
Marine species, like reptiles, fishes, crustaceans and mammals, appear to be moving towards the poles due to hotter ocean temperatures. These species are adapted to warmer waters, and as the ocean heats up, their suitable habitat expands into other waters.
The arrival of these tropical species in temperate zones can disrupt local ecosystems. Native species in these temperate areas might find it too warm, face increased competition for food and space, or fall prey to these new tropical species.
Essentially, tropicalisation is changing our oceans’ ecological landscape. It’s affecting the biodiversity (the variety of life in a particular habitat) and potentially impacting local economies that depend on these marine ecosystems.
What can be done to mitigate the effects of global warming?
So, we know the government aims to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 100% (from levels recorded in 1990), but what plans are they putting in place to achieve this?
In July 2023, the National Adaptation Programme (NAP3) was announced. The NAP3 is a five-year plan designed to protect the population, our homes, businesses and heritage against the risks of climate change (e.g. heatwaves, flooding, drought).
Billions of pounds are being spent to support vulnerable communities, create jobs in conservation and improve water quality. As part of its net zero strategy, the government is also decarbonising buildings and assessing investment needs for fuel-poor homes.
One of the ways they’re doing this is by encouraging low-carbon heat sources, like solar photovoltaic panels. They can supply some of your hot water, power various appliances and even charge your electric vehicle (provided you’ve got a solar battery!)
How can solar power slow down global warming?
If more homeowners and businesses transition to solar power, we may be able to slow down global warming in the UK and around the world. Using renewable energy sources drives down carbon emissions, the main cause of rising global temperatures.
1. Reducing carbon emissions
The UK’s transition towards renewable energy is driven by our need to reduce dependency on fossil fuels.
The harvesting of coal, oil and natural gas is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, so by replacing fossil-fuel-based electricity generation with solar power, countries can hope to reduce their carbon emissions.
2. Rapid growth and generation records
Solar power generation achieved a significant milestone in 2023, with 138,336 solar PV installations, up from 137,926 in 2022.
This growth positioned solar PV as the third largest renewable electricity technology globally, behind hydropower and wind. Notably, China contributed about 38% to this growth, followed by the European Union and the United States.
Such increases are crucial for reaching the ambitious annual solar PV generation level of approximately 8,300 TWh by 2030, as outlined in the Net Zero Scenario.
Mitigating the effects of climate change is a collective responsibility.
By developing our infrastructure, protecting our natural environment, and investing in clean energy, we can begin to repair our planet. If you’d like to know how you can play your part, contact Project Solar today.
